The crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines flight on Wednesday morning, which claimed the lives of 38 out of the 67 people on board, has led to growing speculation that the incident may have been caused by a Russian air defence missile.
Official sources and initial reports suggest that the plane, an Embraer 190, was struck mid-flight by a missile while nearing its destination in Grozny, Russia.
The flight, which was en route from Baku, Azerbaijan, to Grozny, was forced to change course due to adverse weather conditions. It made an emergency landing near Aktau, Kazakhstan, after reportedly colliding with a flock of birds, according to initial statements by Azerbaijan Airlines.
However, surviving passengers later reported hearing a loud explosion, followed by what seemed to be shrapnel hitting the aircraft, causing significant damage to the fuselage.
Euronews has received corroborating information from sources close to the investigation, indicating that the damage to the plane strongly suggests it may have been struck by a surface-to-air missile, likely from a Russian air defence system.
This theory is supported by a report from Azerbaijan-based news outlet AnewZ, which cited a Russian military blogger as stating that the extent of the damage was consistent with an accidental missile strike.
The crash, which occurred in the city of Aktau, Kazakhstan, has claimed the lives of 38 people, including 37 Azerbaijani citizens, along with 16 Russian nationals, six Kazakhstani, and three Kyrgyzstani nationals. 
The survivors, 29 in total, have been hospitalized, including two children. Flight-tracking data from FlightRadar24 revealed erratic flight patterns in the minutes before the crash, with the aircraft making sharp altitude adjustments and experiencing GPS jamming, which hindered real-time tracking.
The downing of the flight bears striking similarities to the 2014 tragedy of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, which was also shot down by a surface-to-air missile in eastern Ukraine, an act attributed to Russian-backed forces.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev addressed the press on Wednesday, stating that it was premature to speculate on the cause of the crash, though he confirmed that the weather conditions had forced the plane to divert to Aktau, where it ultimately crashed during the attempted landing.
The incident raises concerns about the safety of air travel in regions with heightened military tensions, particularly in areas under heavy air defences, such as Grozny. The Chechen capital, under the control of Ramzan Kadyrov, remains a key point of Russian defense against potential Ukrainian drone strikes.
Azerbaijan Airlines has vowed to keep the public informed, with officials pledging to fully cooperate in the ongoing investigation. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Kazakhstan continues to sift through the wreckage in search of further details about the crash.
