A French gambler, who placed a series of high-stakes bets on Polymarket, has emerged with an $85 million windfall after betting $70 million on Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 US presidential election.
The crypto-based prediction market platform, which operates in cryptocurrency and is technically off-limits for US residents, became a battleground for bettors anticipating the outcome of the contentious election.
According to a report by the Wall Street Journal, the individual, identified only as Theo, is a former trader and French citizen who declined to reveal his last name. Chainalysis, a blockchain analysis firm, confirmed the bettor's identity through an extensive investigation that traced a series of coordinated wagers placed across 11 Polymarket accounts. These accounts exhibited strikingly similar activity: placing bets at the same time and withdrawing funds in unison after the election results were finalized.
The bettor’s wager on Trump’s victory over rival Kamala Harris started with a hefty investment of $70 million. After the election results were confirmed, the gambler not only recovered his original stake but also earned a stunning $85 million in winnings. While Polymarket had predicted Trump as the odds-on favorite for victory, news outlets reported the election race remained neck-and-neck between the two candidates.
Polymarket, which launched in 2020 and operates offshore, has faced scrutiny due to its use of cryptocurrency for bets, making it inaccessible to US-based users. This has raised concerns over regulatory and legal issues. Recently, reports surfaced of a FBI raid on the New York home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan. The FBI seized his phone and other devices, although the investigation’s cause remains unclear. A Polymarket spokesperson called the raid a "political retribution" linked to the platform’s accurate predictions of the election outcome.
While Polymarket did not respond to AFP’s inquiry, the French bettor, identified as Theo, confirmed the $85 million profit in an interview with the Wall Street Journal. This win comes amid growing attention on the intersection of cryptocurrency, betting markets, and political events, raising questions about the regulatory framework surrounding such platforms.
