Imagine waking up one day to find that the Pakistani Rupee (PKR) is stronger than the US Dollar. Sounds like a dream, right? But is it truly impossible? Given Pakistan’s current economic challenges, the idea might seem far-fetched, but with the right strategies and data-driven insights, could this dream be turned into reality?
The PKR overtaking the mighty US Dollar – it’s an interesting topic to think about. In recent years, the value of Pakistani Rupee has been under constant pressure due to factors like inflation, trade imbalances, and external debt. However, strengthening the PKR is something that Pakistan can work towards, even if overtaking the dollar isn't realistic in the immediate future. So, let’s dive into how this might happen and what it would mean for the country.
Not to mention, but it requires more than just economic policies — it demands political stability and sound governance.
Reality check - where we stand today
To be blunt, the PKR is far from overtaking the USD anytime soon. Pakistan is currently facing serious economic challenges: inflation is sky-high, foreign reserves are running low, and the dollar rate is over 280.
As of November 2024, Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves have reached $11.29 billion, the highest in over two and a half years, thanks to a boost from remittances and an IMF payment.
The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) set a tough tax collection target of Rs 12.9 trillion for 2024-25, but there's been a Rs 190 billion shortfall in the first four months of the fiscal year.
The shortfall mainly comes from lower import taxes and slower growth in domestic sales tax, although the collection is up 25% compared to last year.
A look at the political crisis
Political instability is one of the biggest obstacles to economic progress in any country, and Pakistan is no exception. Political uncertainty creates a lack of confidence, both domestically and internationally. With frequent changes in government, protests, and uncertainty around major decisions, the Pakistani Rupee has faced significant devaluation over the years.
For Pakistan to strengthen its currency, it needs a stable political environment. Without this, economic policies will remain inconsistent, and investor confidence will be hard to gain.
What could turn the tables? Possible strategies
So, if we were to aim for PKR to compete with the USD, what steps can Pakistan take? Let’s look at some expert-backed strategies – that would require a multi-faceted approach including:
Boosting exports
Pakistan’s trade deficit is a major problem. The country imports more than it exports, which means there’s a constant demand for foreign currency. By focusing on producing more locally and reducing dependency on imports, Pakistan can improve its balance of payments and give the PKR a fighting chance.
Countries like China and India have done it, so why can’t we? Investing in sectors like IT, textiles, and agriculture can generate foreign exchange.
If Pakistan can find ways to make its goods more competitive in the global market, the demand for the rupee will increase as foreign buyers purchase Pakistani products. Policies that support export industries could be key to boosting exports.
Unfortunately, Pakistan's current export growth is not sufficient to balance its trade deficit.
Attracting foreign investment
To attract more dollars into the country, Pakistan needs to create a business-friendly environment (that encourages both domestic and foreign investment). However, foreign investments have been declining due to political instability and security concerns. This means simplifying regulations, protecting investor rights, and ensuring political stability.
Sectors like IT, agriculture, and renewable energy have the potential to attract billions in foreign investment.
More investment means more capital flowing into the country, which strengthens the currency and boosts economic growth. So, if the government can stabilize the political environment and offer incentives, we might see a boost in foreign investments.
Inflation control
With inflation soaring over 30%, the purchasing power of the rupee is eroding fast. If Pakistan can keep inflation under control, the value of the PKR will remain more stable.
Inflation is one of the main reasons why the PKR has depreciated in the past, so keeping it in check is crucial.
This can be achieved by implementing sound monetary policies, reducing government spending, and controlling the money supply.
Economic growth
One of the key factors in strengthening any currency is having a strong economy. If Pakistan can boost industrial growth, improve agriculture, and expand sectors like technology, the economy will grow, which in turn strengthens the currency.
Growth leads to higher exports, more jobs, and increased revenue, all of which can help stabilize the rupee.
Managing debt
Pakistan has a large amount of external debt, much of it in foreign currency. To reduce the impact of this debt, Pakistan needs to focus on managing its fiscal policy better.
This could include reducing government borrowing and ensuring that loans are spent in a way that generates returns for the economy.
The Benefits: What If PKR Overtakes The USD?
If, by some miracle, the PKR does overtake the USD, it could have several positive outcomes:
Reduced inflation
A stronger PKR would help reduce the cost of imports, which would ease inflation and make essential goods more affordable. For a population already suffering due to economic hardship, this would be a welcome relief.
Increased purchasing power
A stronger PKR means more value for your money. Imagine getting more bang for your buck when shopping or traveling abroad!
Cheaper imports
A stronger rupee would mean cheaper imports, especially essential goods like oil, machinery, and medicines. It means that Pakistani citizens will have more buying power.
Lower debt burden
Pakistan’s debt is largely in dollars. With a stronger PKR, the government would need fewer rupees to pay off dollar-denominated loans, easing the financial strain on the country.
Economic stability
A stable currency is a sign of a stable economy. If Pakistan can strengthen the PKR, it would signal to investors that the country’s economy is growing and that the currency is reliable.
Improved trade balance
With a stronger currency, imports might become cheaper, and while exports could become more expensive, Pakistan would have more capital to invest in boosting its export sector.
Attracting foreign investment
A stable and strong PKR might also attract more foreign investors. People prefer to invest in stable economies, so if the currency is strong and inflation is under control, Pakistan could see a rise in foreign direct investment (FDI).
Flip Side: What Could Go Wrong?
But let’s not get carried away as it's not all sunshine and rainbows. With political parties in constant conflict, leadership changes, and the ongoing power struggle between the government and opposition, finding common ground on economic reforms is challenging.
Political instability breeds uncertainty, and economic decisions become difficult to implement when the country is divided.
Hence, strengthening the PKR would also come with some downsides:
Risk of capital flight
If the PKR becomes too strong, it might encourage rich individuals to move their money abroad. This could get risky, especially with all the political uncertainty making people nervous about keeping their investments here.
Short-term economic pain
In the short term, strengthening the PKR might lead to economic discomfort. Price hikes in domestic goods, reduced export revenues, and a slowdown in certain industries could hurt the economy initially. It requires careful policy management to balance these effects.
Slower growth in the short term
Making the rupee stronger might mean stricter spending rules, which could slow the economy down for a while. This could mean higher unemployment rates and slower development of key sectors like infrastructure.
Export competitiveness
A stronger rupee could make Pakistani exports less competitive, as they would become more expensive for international buyers. This could hurt our exporters, particularly small businesses.
Overvalued currency risks
If the rupee strengthens without solid economic growth or stability to support it, it’s like building on shaky ground. It might look good at first, but it could lead to an economic bubble that bursts later, causing bigger problems. This kind of situation has happened before in some Latin American countries, where artificially strong currencies ended up crashing and hurting their economies.
Impact on exports
A stronger rupee could make Pakistani goods more expensive for foreign buyers. This would hurt exporters, who may see a decrease in demand for their products. The government would need to find ways to balance this effect.
Inflation risks
A stronger PKR might cut down import costs, but it could also push up inflation for a bit. Local businesses might hike prices to adjust to the exchange rate, and that could end up hitting consumers.
Negative effects on tourism
A stronger PKR could mean higher costs for foreign tourists visiting Pakistan, which might hit the tourism industry hard—a sector with big growth potential for the country.
Conclusion – Is It Possible?
In a nutshell, while it’s tempting to imagine the PKR surpassing the USD, we need to keep our expectations grounded. For that to even be a possibility, Pakistan would need to implement significant economic reforms, stabilize the political environment, and focus on sustainable growth.
Strengthening the PKR isn’t out of reach, but it would require careful planning and a long-term vision. Achieving this would mean controlling inflation, boosting exports, and managing debt—all while working to build a more stable economy.
Moreover, for the PKR to see meaningful improvement, political stability is key. With the right policies, stronger governance, and concerted efforts from both the government and private sector, Pakistan could gradually move toward a more stable and resilient economy.
It won’t happen overnight, but with a united effort focused on economic progress, a stronger PKR—and a more prosperous future — is within reach.
