Three European nations broke with their main EU allies and chose to recognize a Palestinian state on Wednesday, further isolating Israel from the rest of the world, which was already feeling the impact of the conflict in Gaza, according to Reuters.
In the ruins of Gaza or the occupied West Bank, the move—which an Israeli government spokesman called "obscene"—will not have much of an impact. Israel puts pressure on the financially constrained Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, making it difficult for it to pay its civil staff.
However, it comes after a slow but steady accumulation of issues, starting with Washington's threats to withhold weapons if the war in Gaza goes on and its sanctions against violent settlers. It also includes charges of genocide filed with the International Court of Justice and a potential International Criminal Court arrest warrant for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Since entering government at the end of 2022 with a slew of far-right religious nationalist parties, Netanyahu has been a vocal opponent of the so-called two-state solution.
His administration continues to have strong reservations about the Palestinian Authority, which was established under the Oslo Interim Peace Accords thirty years ago. It accuses the Authority of hostile actions ranging from funding the families of armed militants murdered by Israeli forces to promoting antisemitism in textbooks.
The fact that peace negotiations look to be hopelessly stuck highlights how heated the situation surrounding the massacre in Gaza has grown and how remote the chances of a political settlement based on an independent Palestinian state coexisting with Israel currently appear.
The foreign ministry called the Norwegian, Irish, and Spanish ambassadors in Israel to view video footage of the attack on Israel on October 7 by militants commanded by Hamas. It also called back its diplomats from Oslo, Madrid, and Dublin.
At the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies in Washington, Laura Blumenfeld, a Middle East analyst, described the three nations' action as "diplomatically bold but emotionally tone deaf and unproductive."
"For Israelis it will increase paranoia, reinforcing Netanyahu's argument that Israelis stand alone," she said. "For Palestinians, it falsely raises expectations, without defining a pathway toward realizing legitimate national dreams."
LONGER TERM PRICE
For Netanyahu, who is facing difficulties in uniting a divided wartime alliance and is commonly held accountable in Israel for the October 7 catastrophe, this announcement on Wednesday might offer some respite, as it bolsters his image of resistance against an adversarial external environment.
Israeli international relations expert Yonatan Freeman stated, "This strengthens the narrative which we have been hearing since Day One of this war that in the end, we can only depend on ourselves." "And I think that this can even assist the Israeli government's explanation and description of what it's doing in this war."
Nonetheless, Israel may pay a higher price in the long run for impeding efforts towards a Palestinian state, beginning with the highly valued objective of repairing relations with Saudi Arabia, which was Netanyahu's principal foreign policy objective before the attack.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated in an appearance before a Senate committee on Tuesday that stability in Gaza and a "credible pathway" towards a Palestinian state would be necessary conditions for reaching a deal with Saudi Arabia.
"And it may well be...that, at this moment, Israel is not able or willing to proceed down that pathway," he said.
The photos from October 7, when militants led by Hamas tore through neighbourhoods in the Gaza Strip, murdering over 1,200 people and kidnapping about 250 more, are still shocking to Israelis.
However, outside of Israel, the visuals of the agony in Gaza—where the constant Israeli offensive in retaliation has killed over 35,000 Palestinians and levelled much of the densely populated enclave—have contributed to the escalating protest movement on American college campuses and in European cities.
The frequently heated protests have come at an ever-greater political cost to the administrations of the United States and other traditionally pro-Israel nations like Germany.
Major European nations like France and Britain also rejected to join the trio of nations that granted recognition, arguing that discussions rather than unilateral pronouncements should lead to the creation of a Palestinian state.
But for Alon Liel, a critic of Netanyahu's administration and a former director general of Israel's foreign ministry, the larger picture—which included cases against Israel and its leaders at the international tribunals in The Hague—was more significant than the recognition of Palestine by specific nations.
He said, "If it's part of a wider move that's triggering momentum and part of the ICC, ICJ moves, sanctions on settlers and so on, there's a chance that Israel will notice that the world exists."
